2005-2015
15 June 2015
Ten Years After: Then and Now.
Dov’e’ l’Europa unita?
6 June 2015
— Perche’ siamo dove siamo — Quando guardo ad analisi e a rapporti statistici mi meraviglio sempre della nostra propensione alla precisione: percentuali vengono mostrate con tre decimali, somme di milioni di qualunque divisa contabilizzate fino ai centesimi, e cosi via. Intendiamoci, per certi scopi – la fisica nucleare o i resoconti bancari – ...
Beware What You Wish For
4 June 2015
— The virtues of quick and popular regulation — In the aftermath of the 2007-2008 financial crisis there seemed to be no end to the search for a culprit, preferably a single easily-identifiable obvious one so that dealing with it would be swift and morally charging. The culprit was soon found more by popular demand ...
If We Are Always “Taking Profits” How Come Some of Us Still Lose Money?
12 May 2015
— On why some people move markets — Charlie Munger reportedly said: “It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.” This assessment notwithstanding a lot of garbage gets tossed around as market-relevant talk; some of it sticks to the proverbial wall, if only briefly. My ...
Not a Good Place to Fall
10 May 2015
— Visiting Le Jardin Exotique de Monaco — Narrow paths and spiny edges don’t make for an easy walk, especially when you are on a steep rocky hill while constantly being distracted by breath-taking views of a spectacular harbor. This is not a good place to fall. A few readers know I have a small collection ...
Conventional Clichés
26 April 2015
—On the virtue of being independent— Keynes wrote, “Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.” Pure genius: in 16 words he managed to describe a key constituent of human nature and an entire industry. If the red fish hits the clean bowl he will be just ...
The Glass Is Half Full; the Glass Is Half Empty
21 April 2015
—A brief look at value versus growth investing— The debate on whether value stocks are “better” than growth stocks has been going on forever. From a long-term return perspective, the evidence appears to be favoring value stocks. But when you stop and think about it the question that pops to mind is really “What’s the ...
I’m Not Dead Yet! – Addendum
17 April 2015
I ran into this extremely interesting quasi-follow-up to my previous blog and decided to share it. It is an email by Mauldin Economics (which you can find here: OTB_Apr_17_2015) that introduces the latest Hoisington Quarterly Review. There is no need to add further comments. For those interested in the quoted McKinsey study, you can access it ...
I’m Not Dead Yet!
13 April 2015
No one knows of a “natural” rate of indebtedness such that it automatically triggers default. This applies to individuals, companies and entire nations. We do have evidence that more debt, especially over certain thresholds, causes slower growth and possibly a whole lot of problems down the road. But the timing of when the negative effects ...
In the Long Run the Short Term Wins
10 April 2015
Reading this article in The Guardian is an eye opener. It addresses the sustainability of a carbon-driven world, but also makes far broader points that touch all our current manias and reformation drives – eating habits, healthcare, clothing, and living standards in general. An important question – “how do we get from here to there?” ...