When A Duck Is Not A Duck

Recently, more than a few people mentioned to me they had found vehicles comparable to cash but with significantly higher yields. A few weeks ago I was told by another advisor there are many good alternatives to cash if you know where to find them; when I expressed my concerns, the advisor refused to provide ...

The Discrete Charme of Hypocrisy

Two birds with one stone. There is a difference between tax avoidance and tax evasion. The first is legal; the second is not. It is a duty of any corporation to maximize the first; the second is to be avoided (no pun intended) at all costs. Given this clear distinction, it is surprising how much ...

Hope Springs Eternal

The recent passing of P.D. James reminded me of her 1992 novel The Children of Men, in which she describes the convolutions of society, politics and plain daily lives in a world without the ability to procreate. It’s the story of the last human generation. She did a moving and frightening job at picturing the ...

Time and Time Again

Time and time again professionals in the investment field use quick and easy optical demonstrations of market behavior in order to influence action. A classic example is this graph: Source: unknown; included in a friend’s email It portrays the extent and duration of all the Dow Industrial Average rallies (after a fall of 30% or ...

Oil, Oil… So Much Oil

The linkages, the secondary effects are what you always have to worry about, not the obvious first static impact. Last week, OPEC decided to keep production quotas at current levels (30 million barrels per day). The market price of oil reacted by falling almost 5%, to below $70/barrel. Lower oil prices tend to be good ...

Where’s the Beef?

The above still, from a now famous Wendy’s commercial of the 1980s, will date me. But the punch line is just too good. We look at newspapers and news organization for useful information, possibly garnished with appropriate color and educational impact. That is at least in concept. Experienced journalist friends tell me that the public ...

The “First Call” Test

According to the 2014 Investment Company Fact Book, last year there were over 7,700 mutual funds in the U.S. alone, with $15 trillion invested in them and almost 265 million shareholder accounts. Of these funds, 1,158 were classified as “Index” ETFs, with about $1.6 trillion invested, leaving the vast majority of funds and monies involved in the “actively managed” ...

Where Are the Customers’ Yachts? – Redux

Where are they, indeed? If you haven’t read the book, do yourself a favor and get a hold of a copy. First published in 1940, it is informative, well written, and witty. And still very relevant. The point here is not to languidly blame anyone, or to say that people who could afford yachts yesterday can ...

Autumnal Musings

  When markets are “good” for a long time you should always at least give it some thought. Your thought should not be driven by the specifics of your particular situation, like objective and time frame of your personal wealth, but should rise above it all. There is always time to derive a unique strategy ...