How Richard Soultanian and his team at NUS Consulting Group read the situation.


Last year I published my thoughts on how the oil price decline, then still only half-way to today’s levels, might not turn out to be as beneficial as most analysts thought (OIL, OIL… SO MUCH OIL). I still think that balance sheet pressures are more important than consumer spending benefits.

Today I’d like to share, with permission, a concise opinion piece by NUS Consulting Group. In essence things may not necessarily get worse than now, but have little chance of getting better anytime soon.

I won’t expand on the supply issues discussed in the paper. As global demand goes, I reproduce an updated graph from the above-mentioned post which does not offer a pretty picture: world activity appears set to slow down further.

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Source: Bloomberg; Orthos Advisory calculations.

Photo source: Bloomberg.